Della Afrilia Lestari (1), Fauzatul Laily Nisa (2)
General Background: Poverty remains a persistent development challenge in Indonesia, reflecting disparities in economic conditions, employment, and educational attainment. Specific Background: Four regencies on Madura Island—Bangkalan, Sampang, Pamekasan, and Sumenep—continue to experience substantial poverty despite regional economic recovery. Knowledge Gap: Previous studies have provided limited simultaneous examination of economic growth, open unemployment, and educational attainment in Madura's distinctive socioeconomic context, particularly during the post-pandemic recovery period. Aims: This study examines the relationships between economic growth, the open unemployment rate, average years of schooling, and poverty across four Madura regencies from 2017 to 2025. Using 36 observations from official statistical publications, panel data regression was conducted through a Fixed Effects Model. Results: Economic growth exhibited a statistically insignificant negative association with poverty (β = −0.063642; p = 0.3705). Conversely, open unemployment showed a significant positive association (β = 0.446774; p = 0.0286), while average years of schooling demonstrated a significant negative association (β = −1.720269; p = 0.0001). The model explained 94.24% of poverty variation, with jointly significant predictors. Novelty: The study provides district-level evidence distinguishing educational attainment and labor market conditions from statistically insignificant aggregate economic growth during 2017–2025. Implications: Regional poverty reduction policies should prioritize educational accessibility, school retention, and formal employment opportunities rather than relying exclusively on economic expansion.
Highlights:
Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Average Years of Schooling, Poverty Rate
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